Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authority
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts
Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
5:31 AM ECT TUE, AUG 13, 2024
THIS IS FOR ST KITTS AND NEVIS
..TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH ALL DISASTER PREPARATIONS TO COMPLETION AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER.
AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST OR ABOUT 119 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND NEAR OR OVER THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY THIS EVENING. AFTER PASSING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND ERNESTO COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY OVER THE WATERS MILES (110 KM) FROM THE CENTER. ST. BARTHELEMY RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 53 MPH (85 KM/H). THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST ANALYSIS AND FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO BE AT IS CLOSEST POINT TO ST. KITTS AND NEVIS IN ABOUT SIX HOURS WITH WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING ITS PASSAGE.
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS; HENCE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND AND RESIDENTS NEAR SLOPES SHOULD GUARD AGAINST MUDSLIDES.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN PORT. SEAS ARE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY AND WILL PEAK NEAR 10 FEET IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM DRAWS NEAR. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION WHERE NECESSARY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM ECT POSITION, 16.2 N, 61.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB.
THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE AT 1100 AM ECT.
FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE