WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ALERT STATEMENT 3
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 PM ECT THU, AUG 14, 2025
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS IN THE MONITORED AREA…
…FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAS ENTERED OUR MOINITORED AREA BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A WATCH OR WARNING TO BE ISSUED.
THE ST. KITTS AND NEVIS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ERIN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THE BEST FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE CENTRE OF ERIN TO PASS NORTH OF ALL THE ISLANDS. THE CHANCE OF STORMFORCE WINDS REACHING THE MENTIONED ISLANDS IS LOW. HOWEVER, FURTHER SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OR PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION COULD BRING THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE RISK FROM SWELLS WILL RISE; HENCE, THOSE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE AWARE. OTHER HAZARDS, SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALLL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
INTERESTS IN THE MENTIONED ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE AND, TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED FOR THE REST OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 5 PM OR 2100Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES EAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND 873 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 17 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A WESTNORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB OR 29.47 INCHES.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER
TRECY SPENCER-LAKE
