WOCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
10:00 AM ECT THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 04, 2025
…TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM…INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS IT MOVES IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE REGION.
AT THIS STAGE, IT IS STILL UNCLEAR WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OR WHETHER IT WILL IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, THE WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, LOOKING THE MOST IMPRESSIVE TO DATE. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE. TO BE SAFE, RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED TO REMAIN PREPARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 8 AM ECT OR 1200 UTC, THE TROPICAL WAVE OF INTEREST WAS CENTRED ABOUT 1916 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: 1966 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS & NEVIS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 9 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM AT 50 PERCENT, AND FORMATION CHANCE OVER SEVEN DAYS IS HIGH AT 80 PERCENT. THIS MEANS DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EQUALLY LIKELY AS NOT BUT HIGHLY LIKELY OR EXPECTED IN SEVEN DAYS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA, BUT MAY BE REQUIRED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 2 PM TOMORROW, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN