Early Thursday morning the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Atlantic Invest 99L.
As of 2 pm today, Invest 99L was located at 9.9°N, 28.4°W or well over 1400 miles southeast of St. Kitts and Nevis. Currently it is moving towards the west at approximately 20 mph with sustained winds of approximately 28 mph. Currently satellite imagery associated with Invest 99L does not appear as impressive as it did yesterday, however oceanic and atmospheric conditions are favourable for development.
Model projections indicate 99L has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hours along with a 80% chance for development in 5 days. The track guidance does suggest the system may pass dangerously close to St. Kitts and Nevis and the intensity track does suggest it could be a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Leewards.
Therefore it is possible we may experience some effects from this system.
The system is currently projected to affect the region between Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
Please bare in mind the atmosphere is continually changing and therefore the conditions indicated above can change significantly by the middle of next week. As a result the St. Kitts Meteorological Services (SKMS) will continue to monitor the passage of Invest 99L and I will be providing an update on its progress at 10 am tomorrow.