ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 PM ECT MON, SEP 4, 2017
THIS IS FOR ST KITTS AND NEVIS.
HURRICANE IRMA STRENGTHENS AS IT HEAD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, AND NEVIS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITH THE NEXT 36 HOURS..
AT 5 PM ECT OR 2100Z THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES EAST THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR APPROXIMATELY 550 MILES EAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
IRMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF IRMA WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRMA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB OR 27.88 INCHES.
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, IRMA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ITS PATH THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO IRMA IS ON A PROJECTED PATH THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A TURN TO THE WEST AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEST NORTH WEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SHOULD THERE BE ANY DELAY IN THIS SHIFT IN MOTION, IRMA COULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS MEANS THAT STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD BE WORSE.
OUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS ON LATE TUESDAY WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO PASS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF IRMA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
MARINERS SHOULD COMPLETE SAFE ANCHORAGE. SEAS HAVE STARTED TO DETERIORATE AND WILL GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS.
PREPARATION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE, AND ALL PREPARATION SHOULD BE RUSH TO COMPLETION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 5:0 PM ECT POSITION, 16.7 N, 54.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB.
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