The CariCOF Climate Outlooks for October to December 2026 are now available. These include:
- Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook (August Update)
- Heat Outlook
- Flash Flood Potential Outlook (Experimental)
- Temperature Outlook Maps
- Precipitation Outlook Maps
- Wet Days & Wet Spells Outlook
- Drought Outlook
- Dry Spells Outlook and
- The Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter
The following excerpt from CariCOF’s Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter summarizes the climate conditions and related hazards for the upcoming 3-month period October to December 2026:
During the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the transition out of the Caribbean Wet and Heat Seasons, a very strong El Niño implies:
(i) potential expansion of impactful drought;
(ii) humid heat peaking in October in the Guianas and likely lingering in the Lesser Antilles, culminating in heatwaves;
(iii) unusually irregular and infrequent tropical cyclone activity;
(iv) unusually low shower, wet spell and excessive rainfall event frequency;
(v) nevertheless, high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts remains across the region, with the possible exception of the ABC Islands and French Guiana;
(vi) coral reef bleaching potential around the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.
Dusty Saharan air intrusions, though infrequent at this time, can further inhibit tropical cyclone activity, while exacerbating heat and deteriorating air quality.