WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ALERT STATEMENT 4
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 AM ECT FRI, AUG 15, 2025
ERIN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TODAY.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAS ENTERED OUR MOINITORED AREA BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A WATCH OR WARNING TO BE ISSUED.
THE ST. KITTS AND NEVIS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ERIN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TODAY AND POSSIBLY PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ST. KITTS & NEVIS AND THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THE BEST FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE CENTRE OF ERIN TO PASS NORTH OF ALL THE ISLANDS. THE CHANCE OF STORMFORCE WINDS REACHING THE MENTIONED ISLANDS IS LOW. HOWEVER, FURTHER SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OR PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION COULD BRING THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE RISK FROM SWELLS WILL RISE; HENCE, THOSE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE AWARE. OTHER HAZARDS SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALLL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
INTERESTS IN THE MENTIONED ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE AND, TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED FOR THE REST OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17 9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 511 MILES EAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS WEEKEND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 90 MILES (150KM) FROM THE CENTRE.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE
DATA IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 11AM
FORECASTER
PATRICE EDWARDS
