Today, 19th March, there were two KeJ events both of magnitude 1.4. Since the elevated seismicity that triggered the routine updates on 9th March and the intensification on 12th March, the level of seismicity has steadily declined. As a consequence, a recommendation was made to the Grenada NaDMa that, at this time, lowering the Alert Level at KeJ might be considered.
The following should be considered given this 2018 period of unrest that did not culminate in an eruption:
- Prior to December 2001, KeJ erupted without there being precursory seismicity.
- The eruptions since 2001, i.e. in 2015 and 2017, have all manifested a different pattern of behaviour from each other, as far as precursory seismicity is concerned.
- This 2018 episode is the first recorded that an extended period of unrest has not culminated in an eruption, by this time.
The following are possible scenarios that may occur going forward:
- KeJ may have moved to a phase of activity that will see episodic volcano-seismic crises, such as this 2018 activity, without eruptive activity.
- KeJ eruptive activity may revert to that seen prior to 2001, where eruptions occur without precursory seismicity.
- KeJ may enter a phase of prolonged, episodic eruptions, with or without associated precursory seismicity.
At this stage, the available data do not allow us to say what is the most likely scenario. We will continue to monitor and update guided by activity levels. All things being equal, this is the last update for this unrest episode.
Please note that, should there be any significant change, all public releases (this includes conventional and social media) associated with KeJ unrest episodes must FIRST come from the Grenada authorities as the volcano is part of their territorial space.
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