Tropical Disturbance AL97 – Advisory as at 4 pm, 15 Sep 2019

Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authority
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts

Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
4:00 PM ECT SUN SEP 15 2019

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY, LIKELY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY AND BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOW FAR OR HOW CLOSE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE PROJECTED TRACK, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST SINCE FRIDAY, WHEN IT WAS FIRST DETECTED; HENCE, THE EVENTUAL PATH IS QUITE UNCLEAR.

THE LONGER IT REMAINS ON A WESTERLY TRACK, THE GREATER THE PROBABILITY OF IT IMPACTING THE CARIBBEAN, IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIFETHREATENING CONDITIONS. HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLANS PREPARED AND MONITOR DISTURBANCE AL97 CLOSELY.

AT 4 PM LOCAL TIME, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL97 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 14 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE UNKNOWN, AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, WINDS ARE LIKELY LESS THAN 30 MPH.

BY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WE WILL BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO SAY WITH SOME CERTAINTY HOW STRONG AND WHICH ISLAND, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM CLOSELY, AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA.

AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN BY AROUND 4 PM TOMORROW MONDAY.