WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE ERIN ALERT STATEMENT 7
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 AM ECT SAT, AUG 16, 2025
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS IN THIS CASE THAT HURRICANE ERIN IS WITHIN OUR MOINITORED AREA BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A WATCH OR WARNING.
THE BEST FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE CENTRE OF ERIN TO PASS NORTHEAST THEN NORTH OF ALL THE ISLANDS. THE CHANCE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE MENTIONED ISLANDS IS LOW. HOWEVER, ANY SHIFT TOWARDS THE ISLANDS COULD BRING THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THE RISK FROM SWELLS WILL RISE; HENCE, THOSE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE AWARE. OTHER HAZARDS SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIIN OUTER RAIN-BANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE MENTIONED ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE AND, TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED FOR THE REST OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 5:00 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR 202 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIN IS LIKELY TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND BVI DURING THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERIN IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RAPID STRENGTHENING BECOMING A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORMFORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (185 KM) MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20) INCHES.
SWELLS FROM ERIN WILL CAUSE MARINE CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT AND ENSURE THAT YOUR VESSELS ARE SAFELY MOORED.
FORECASTER
JALEEL JACOBS
