Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authorities
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts
Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
9:00 AM ECT TUE, OCT 7, 2025
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE & ST. KITTS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95, LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE REGION, PARTICULARLY THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL EARLY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AL95 COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE EVENTUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA. RESIDENTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AL95.
AT 8AM ECT OR 1200Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1311 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE ST. KITTS & NEVIS: AND APPROXIMATELY 1687 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AL95 IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 90 PERCENT, AND FORMATION CHANCE OVER SEVEN DAYS IS 90 PERCENT. WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IF AL95 BECOMES UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE TREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS IS ELEVATED.
AT THIS TIME NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED OF RESIDENTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS OTHER THAN TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95.
THE NEXT UPDATE ON AL95 WILL BE AT 2 PM OR 1800Z TODAY.
FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE
ANTIGUA & BARBUDA MET SERVICES