Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authorities
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts
Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122
WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WATCH STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
5:00 AM ECT THU, OCT 9, 2025
THIS IS FOR ST KITTS AND NEVIS
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WHEN JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM; POSE A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST OR ABOUT 309 MILES (572 KM) EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JERRY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM) MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, THE CORE OF JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY; INTO TOMORROW FRIDAY; CAUSING GUSTY CONDITIONS MAINLY IN SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 2 – 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF JERRY WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING MAINLY IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
SWELLS GENERATED BY JERRY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFETHREATENING CONDITIONS HENCE, MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO STAY IN PORT.
NO SPECIFIC ACTION IS REQUIRED OF RESIDENTS; OTHER THAN TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.
REPEATING THE 5:00 AM ECT POSITION, 15.7 N, 57.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11AM ECT.
FORECASTER
TRECY SPENCER-LAKE
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES