The CariCOF Climate Outlooks for May to July 2026 are now available. These include:
- Flash Flood Potential Outlook (Experimental)
- Temperature Outlook Maps
- Precipitation Outlook Maps
- Wet Days & Wet Spells Outlook
- Drought Outlook
- Dry Spells Outlook and
- The Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter
The following excerpt from CariCOF’s Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter summarizes the climate conditions and related hazards for the upcoming 3-month period May to July 2026:
ENSO neutral conditions in the Pacific are forecast to transition to a significant El Niño by July. This, combined with unusually warm waters near to and north of the Caribbean, but seasonably warm waters in around the southern reaches imply:
(i) a Caribbean Heat Season with heatwaves gradually ramping up, and night- and daytime temperatures possibly matching MJJ 2024 records in the northwest of the region;
(ii) high evaporation rates, frequent short dry spells and drought continuation in many areas in the eastern and southern Caribbean, thus increasing wildfire potential through May or longer;
(iii) while rainfall frequency could increase more slowly into the Wet Season than in most years, shower intensity should rise towards June, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts. Intrusions of dusty Saharan air will likely be frequent.