ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:08 PM ECT SAT, JUL 7, 2018
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…BERYL WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES…
AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 642 NORTICAL MILES ESE OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, 670 MILES ESE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND APPROXIMATELY 880 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. BERYL IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A WESTNORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SUNDAY, CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND BERYL IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND COULD FURTHER DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE SUNDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR BERYLY TO PAST AT A SAFE DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS AND THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE, A MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH, BRINGING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS, CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WINDS FROM THE EAST UP TO 28-46 KM/H OR 17 TO 29MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL.
RAINFALL TOTAL OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL. THIS COULD INCREASE IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH.
SEAS WILL DETERIORATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 2.4 TO 3.1 METRES OR 8 TO 10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM PORT.
ALL RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM.