TROPICAL STORM BERYL ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:15 AM ECT SUN, JUL 8, 2018
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 443 NORTICAL MILES ESE OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, 440 MILES ESE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND APPROXIMATELY 660 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY, CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT, AND MOVE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND ANALYSIS TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND COULD FURTHER DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EVEN A TROPICAL WAVE BY MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR BERYL TO PAST A SAFE DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL ANY POSSIBLE MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS THUS WATCHES OR WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WIND FROM THE EAST UP TO 28-46KM/H OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL. POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTAL OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL.
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT UP TO 2.4 TO 3 METRES OR 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED; THUS, A HIGH WIND ADVISORY, MARINE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ALL RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AROUND 11 AM ECT.