WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
8:15 AM ECT THU, AUG 14, 2025
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
TROPICAL STORM ERIN HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA.
ERIN CONTINUES WESTWARD REMAINING ON A PATH THAT COULD BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY…
THE ST. KITTS & NEVIS MET SERVICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ERIN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO ST. KITTS & NEVIS AND THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THE BEST FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE CENTRE OF ERIN TOPASS NORTH OF ALL THE ISLANDS, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SUSTAINED STORM-FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER, FURTHER SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH OR PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION COULD BRING THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IMPACTS ERIN MIGHT BRING TO THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE RISK FROM SWELLS WILL RISE; HENCE, THOSE NEAR COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE AWARE. OTHER HAZARDS SUCH AS HEAVY RAINFALLL ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE AND, TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED FOR THE REST OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.
AT 5 AM/PM ECT OR 0900 Z THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1317 MILES EAST OF ST. KITTS &NEVIS AND 1091 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 17 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE AREA IS MODERATE AT A MAXIMUM OF AROUND 45 PERCENT FOR ANGUILLA AND PORTIONS OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LOWER FOR THE OTHER ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB OR 29.59 INCHES.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO TROPICAL STORM, WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, WHEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 11AM, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS/CHARISSA HUMPHREYS